Market Types

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Market Types Overview

Predicta supports several types of markets, each designed for different prediction scenarios. Understanding these types will help you choose the right markets to trade.

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Binary Markets

Binary markets are the simplest form of prediction markets, focusing on yes/no outcomes.

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Characteristics

• Two possible outcomes: Yes/No
• Simple price structure: Yes price + No price = 100
• Clear resolution criteria: Easy to understand and resolve
• High liquidity potential: Simple structure attracts more traders

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Example

Market: “Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by 2025?”

• Buy YES shares if you think it will
• Buy NO shares if you think it won’t
• Prices always add up to 100

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Use Cases

• Event-driven questions such as policy decisions or product launches
• Short-duration markets that benefit from tight spreads
• Starter markets for new communities where simplicity accelerates onboarding

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Multi-Outcome Binary Markets

Multi-outcome binary markets allow for multiple possible outcomes, each with its own yes/no prediction.

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Characteristics

• Multiple possible outcomes: Several conditions to choose from
• Each outcome has Yes/No options: Trade on each condition independently
• Complex price structure: More options mean more trading opportunities
• Higher resolution complexity: Requires careful resolution criteria

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Example

Market: “Which tech company will launch a new AI product in 2024?”

• Apple: YES/NO
• Google: YES/NO
• Microsoft: YES/NO

You can trade on any or all of these conditions.

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Use Cases

• Comparing several mutually exclusive product releases, sports teams, or geopolitical events
• Moderated narrative markets where each outcome requires its own resolution notes
• Scenarios that demand hedging across independent binary conditions

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Series Markets

Series markets are special markets that automatically regenerate after completion. They create new instances on a schedule so traders can maintain positions over recurring intervals.

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Characteristics

• Automatic regeneration: Creates new market instances automatically
• Configurable regeneration intervals: Hourly, daily, weekly, monthly, etc.
• Historical tracking: See performance across multiple instances
• Continuous market presence: Market stays active over time
• Inherited parameters: Each regenerated market uses the same rules

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Example

Market: “Daily Bitcoin Price Close Above $50,000”

• Creates a new market every day
• Each day is a separate trading opportunity
• Historical data shows your performance across days

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Use Cases

• Rolling macro indicators (inflation prints, unemployment claims, daily volatility)
• Habitual community predictions such as “daily price close above X”
• Markets that benefit from comparable historical leaderboards

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Regeneration Schedules

Series markets can regenerate on different schedules:

• Hourly: New market every hour
• Daily: New market every day
• Weekly: New market every week
• Monthly: New market every month
• Custom: Custom schedule with specific time windows

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Choosing the Right Market Type

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For Beginners

Start with Binary Markets - they’re the simplest to understand and trade.

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For Advanced Traders

• Multi-Outcome Binary: When you want to trade on multiple related conditions
• Series Markets: When you want to trade on recurring events

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Market Type Comparison

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Market States

All market types go through the same lifecycle:

1. PENDING_APPROVAL → Waiting for admin approval
2. OPEN → Active trading
3. CLOSED → Trading stopped
4. LOCKED → Locked for resolution
5. COMPLETED → Outcome determined
6. SETTLED → Payouts processed

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Next Steps