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Documentation Index

Fetch the complete documentation index at: https://docs.predictamarkets.com/llms.txt

Use this file to discover all available pages before exploring further.

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What Are Prediction Markets?

Prediction markets are platforms where you trade shares based on the outcome of future events. The price of shares reflects the market’s collective probability that an event will occur — updated in real-time as people trade.

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How Prediction Markets Work

  1. Market Creation: Someone creates a market with a clear, answerable question
  2. Trading: People buy and sell shares based on their beliefs about the outcome
  3. Price Discovery: YES/NO prices reflect the collective probability
  4. Settlement: When the event occurs (or the deadline passes), the market resolves
  5. Payouts: Winning shares pay out at full value; losing shares are worth zero

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Market Types

Predicta supports several types of markets:

Binary Markets

Simple YES/NO markets — the most common type.

Multi-Outcome Markets

Multiple conditions, each with independent YES/NO options.

Series Markets

Automatically regenerating markets on a recurring schedule.

Understanding Prices

Learn how prices work and what they mean.

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Market States

Markets go through different states during their lifecycle:
Newly created market, waiting for admin approval. Not yet open for trading.
Active and accepting trades. This is when you can buy and sell shares.
No longer accepting new orders. The outcome will be determined soon.
Closed and locked for resolution. No trading allowed.
Outcome determined, awaiting payout processing.
All payouts processed. Market is fully resolved.
Market terminated. All orders refunded — no payouts made.

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Market Information

Each market detail page shows important information:

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Basic Information

  • Title: The question being asked
  • Description: Detailed explanation of the market and resolution criteria
  • Category: What type of market it is
  • Expiration Date: When the market closes

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Trading Information

  • Current Prices: YES and NO prices (always summing to 100)
  • Volume: Total trading activity
  • Price History: Chart showing price movements over time
  • Order Book: List of all pending buy/sell orders
  • Recent Trades: Latest completed trades

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Your Information

  • Your Holdings: Shares you currently own
  • Your Orders: Your pending buy/sell orders

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Market Resolution

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How Markets Resolve

  1. Automated Resolution: Some markets resolve automatically using tracked data (stock prices, sports scores, etc.)
  2. Admin Resolution: Admins determine the outcome based on the market’s stated criteria

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Settlement Process

  1. Market Closes: Trading stops
  2. Outcome Determined: Winning side identified
  3. Payout Calculation: System calculates winnings for all holders
  4. Funds Distributed: Winners receive payouts automatically

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Understanding Payouts

  • Winning Shares: Pay out at full value
  • Losing Shares: Worth zero
  • Your Profit: (Number of winning shares × payout per share) minus what you paid
Example:
  • You bought 100 YES shares at price 60 = 6,000¢ (60 PT)
  • Market resolves YES
  • You receive: 100 shares × full payout = 100 PT
  • Your profit: 100 PT − 60 PT = 40 PT

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Reading Market Charts

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Price History Chart

  • YES Price Line: How YES price has changed over time
  • NO Price Line: How NO price has changed over time
  • Volume Bars: Trading activity at each point in time

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What to Look For

  • Trends: Is the price moving consistently up or down?
  • Volatility: How much is the price swinging?
  • Volume Spikes: When did most trading happen?

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Market Categories

Markets are organised into categories:
  • Sports: Game outcomes, player performance, tournament results
  • Politics: Elections, policy decisions, leadership changes
  • Finance: Stock prices, economic indicators, company events
  • Technology: Product launches, company milestones
  • Entertainment: Awards, show outcomes
  • Custom: Any topic with a clear, resolvable outcome

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Best Practices

Read market descriptions carefully — especially the resolution criteria — before trading.
Don’t trade on markets you don’t understand. Make sure you know exactly what question is being asked and how it will be resolved.
  1. Understand the Question: Know exactly what the market is asking
  2. Check Resolution Criteria: Know how the outcome will be determined
  3. Watch the Expiration: Markets close before the event happens
  4. Monitor Prices: Prices reflect new information very quickly
  5. Diversify: Don’t put all your funds in one market

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Next Steps

Market Types Explained

Detailed explanation of all market types.

Understanding Prices

Learn how prices work and what they mean.

Start Trading

Learn how to place orders and trade effectively.

Create Markets

Create your own prediction markets.